Michael Pachter, the research analyst at Wedbush Securities, talked at the Game Monetization Summit, where he had some rather gloomy predictions for Nintendo and the Wii U.
Pachter claims that nobody is going to support the Wii U once the Xbox 720 and PS4 come out. Further pushing the Wii U and Nintendo to become completely irrelevant.
Here are some quotes of what he said about the Wii U:
“I think you’re going to see now with the Wii U, notwithstanding its early launch support, nobody’s going to support it. I don’t think we’re going to see every game on the Wii U next year. I think when next-gen consoles come out they’re going to be better than the Wii U. Call of Duty is amazing on the Wii U this year. The problem with playing Call of Duty online is it’s a community and if there’s only four people playing it on the Wii U it’s no fun. Nobody in their right mind would buy a Wii U and say ‘I’m going to play Call of Duty.’ That’s like saying ‘I gave up Facebook, and it’s Google+ now’.”
“Nintendo’s trading at about $3 billion of equity value; it was trading at about $80 billion. The market hates business models that start to show losses, and start to fail. Crappy little Riot Games, doing $150 million in revenue and wildly profitable, is worth a buttload more than Zynga, doing $1.1 billion and not making money. I think Nintendo becomes completely irrelevant. They have their niche, Nintendo’s first-party content is great content, and hardcore people will keep buying their consoles, but they’re not going to only play with Nintendo consoles.”
Pachter on Activison, Bungie:
“Vivendi’s going to screw up Activision for the next couple of years, because they’re going to cause them to borrow money and buy back stock. I think the first thing Activision buys is Take-Two, because that fits in very nicely. Activision should buy Zynga – I just don’t think Mark Pincus is a seller. I think Zynga has great assets, they have really good franchises, they have a ton of revenue, and I think run more efficiently they’d make a ton of money. THQ is not investable. Activision and EA make tons of money, so they are interesting investments. Take-Two doesn’t make very much money but they have really great assets, so I think they remain attractive.”
“Prediction: The next Bungie game will be single-player only; the multiplayer aspect of that game will be subscription only.Activision’s going to try it, because they’re greedy pigs, and they’re bold.”
Pachter also discussed digital distribution, and why Zynga is a “train wreck”. He also feels Call of Duty is a failure due to “Activision doing a bad thing with Call of Duty from a profit perspective,” he said. “This multiplayer thing being free was a mistake. I don’t think anybody ever envisioned it would be this big. It’s a mistake because it keeps those people from buying and playing other games.”
I’ll just say I disagree with what Pachter is saying. There is no backing to his claim. No evidence, no proof, just talk. PLEASE put your comments below. What do you guys think?
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